人民币汇率非线性特征的研究与分析

近年来,关于人民币汇率改革的问题一直是国内外关注的热点,对各国的政治、金融、贸易均产生了巨大的影响。因此如何科学的预测人民币汇率走势,并以此为基础采取相应的风险规避措施,成为了学界的焦点和难点。而在构建人民币汇率预测模型的过程中,对于数据的特性进行分析是前期的必要工作。本文对人民币汇率进行非线性特征检验,通过JB正态性检验证实了人民币汇率的“尖峰厚尾”特性、AC-PAC序列自相关性检验表明人民币汇率时间序列存在一定程度上自相关性、ARCH异方差性检验验证了汇率的波动现象存在时间序列上的“簇聚现象”。     

学商合一的高职商务英语实践教学模式探索

21世纪的世界,经济全球化方兴未艾,中国作为世界贸易大国,也加快了与世界各国交流和贸易的步伐。国际经济合作的日益繁荣,迫切需要一大批既精通语言知识又具有较强商务知识的高级复合型应用型人才。适应世界经济和贸易的发展,高职教育工作者必须审时度势,创新教学观念,改革滞后的商务英语专业教学模式和人才培养模式,逐步建立以实践教学为核心,学商高度结合的新的教学模式,才能培养和造就具有过硬外语能力的高级商务人才,提升商务英语专业人才的国际竞争力。     

流通产业变动与就业吸纳力——基于省际面板数据的实证检验

流通产业因其自身的特性对就业的吸纳能力较强,但由于从业人员规模、产值增长速度、产业内部产值和就业构成比例的偏差等多重因素的影响,东部及中西部地区流通产业对于就业吸纳能力有所不同。本文在简要分析产业结构和就业吸纳力关联机理的基础上,以东部和中西部地区流通产业产值、就业和企业法人数为主要考察变量,对流通产业就业吸纳力做了回归分析。实证结果显示,东部发达地区的流通产业产值和就业对总体就业吸纳能力的影响强于中西部欠发达地区,而限额以上企业法人数对总体就业吸纳呈现负向影响,且东部地区大于中西部地区。本文的主旨是希望通过具体的计量检验与分析,为今后学术界对于流通产业就业吸纳力的理论研究提供更多的实证依据。     

一类捕食行为的功能性反应模型的定态分歧

本文运用线性全连续场的谱理论和约化方法,研究了一类捕食行为的功能性反应模型的约化方程和定态分歧,得到了方程在不同情况下的分歧解．     

Time Orientation and Attitudes toward Advertising in a High-Context Culture: An Empirical Study of Macau

Each culture has its own dominant construct of time that influences the value placed on the use of time by individuals. This empirical study examines how time orientations influence attitudes toward advertising in a high-context culture of an Asian economy. Data was collected through surveys in Macau. Findings show that Macanese are more future orientated but less enthusiastic towards advertising; they switch to another channel and engage in other activities during commercial breaks. Results also show that past orientation has the strongest impact on advertising avoidance. The authors offer managerial implications for the development of effective advertising programs in this emerging market.     

Recruitment of Seemingly Overeducated Personnel: Insider–Outsider Effects on Fair Employee Selection Practices

Fair employment policies constrain employee selection: specifically, applicants’ professional experience can be a substitute for formal education. However, reflecting firm-specific job requirements, this substitution rule applies less strictly to applicants from outside the firm. Further, setting low educational job requirements decreases the risk of disparate impact charges. Using data from a large US public employer, we show that successful outsider candidates exhibit higher levels of formal education than insiders. Also, this gap in educational attainments between outsiders and insiders widens with lower advertised degree requirements. More generally, we find strong insider–outsider effects on hiring decisions.     

城市财力均等化水平测算与缺口度量:以上海为例

财力均等化是各城市实现基本公共服务均等化的重要保障。以上海为例,利用泰尔指数测算区县财力均等化水平,结果表明区县财力初次分配差距没有明显收敛,而区县财力再分配均衡水平逐步提升,区县财力总体差异的主要来源由区域内转变为区域间与区域内财力差异共同构成,这说明转移支付有效提高了区县总体财力及区域内财力的均等化水平。通过构建区县财力标准人分配模型,度量三大区域内各区县的财力均等化缺口,发现中心城区、郊区各区的财力缺口较大,北三片的财力分配较均衡。改进财力均等化状况应围绕完善市对区县转移支付为核心的财政体制改革展开。     

A simple two-component model for the distribution of intraday returns

We model the conditional distribution of high-frequency financial returns by means of a two-component quantile regression model. Using three years of 30 minute returns, we show that the conditional distribution depends on past returns and on the time of the day. Two practical applications illustrate the usefulness of the model. First, we provide quantile-based measures of conditional volatility, asymmetry and kurtosis that do not depend on the existence of moments. We find seasonal patterns and time dependencies beyond volatility. Second, we estimate and forecast intraday Value at Risk. The two-component model is able to provide good-risk assessments and to outperform GARCH-based Value at Risk evaluations.     

Asset pricing dynamics

This paper is concerned with the issue of dynamics in financial data and asset pricing models such as the CAPM. A literature review in this area is undertaken and highlights the need for a modern time series econometric approach in asset pricing. Such an approach is discussed and deals with problems related to structural breaks and microstructures, dynamics in the mean and variance process, and non-stationary regressions and cointegration. An empirical application using UK stock market data demonstrates the merit of the proposed methodology in correcting market model regressions.     

Value-at-risk in a market subject to regime switching

Many empirical researches report that value-at-risk (VaR) measures understate the actual 1% quantile, while for Inui, K., Kijima, M. and Kitano, A., VaR is subject to a significant positive bias. Stat. Probab. Lett., 2005, 72, 299–311. proved that VaR measures overstate significantly when historical simulation VaR is applied to fat-tail distributions. This paper resolves the puzzle by developing a regime switching model to estimate portfolio VaR. It is shown that our model is able to correct the underestimation problem of risk.